One of the truly amazing things I see watching the video game industry is all of the execs and analysts saying the PS3 will still win this generation. What entitles winning is having the most consoles sold at the end of this generation, something Sony has managed to do the past two generations. Currently the Xbox 360 has sold 11 million units, the Wii has 7 million and the PS3 has 3 million units sold. Anyone with a graph can show you that the Wii is selling at a crazy high rate and should pass the 360 this holiday season. The PS3 on the other hand is barely in the fight selling horrible in Japan and North America.

The two factors people claim will save the PS3 are the games, BluRay and graphics. In the past Sony has controlled the most popular game franchises on their systems. Sony killed the Sega DreamCast by denying them EA's Madden by striking an exclusive deal with EA. Sony has kept the Final Fantasy, Mettle Gear and Grand Theft Auto franchises to themselves propelling Sony to huge profits. The current PS3 just does not have the software to compete with the 360's lineup. It is believed that once more of their big titles come out the PS3 will rebound and eventually catch the 360.

The other factor is that the PS3 is the cheapest BluRay player on the market. Sony used the PS2 to help push DVD into the homes and the belief is the PS3 will do the same thing. If BluRay becomes the HD optical disk of choice more people will buy a PS3 just because it is a cheap BluRay player. This is what happened with the PS2 but at a much lower price point.

The third factor is the graphical power of the PS3. So far most games have been developed using the 360 as the lead device and ported the games over to the PS3. This has lead to games not looking much better than their 360 version. This fall we will start seeing games that used the PS3 as the lead console. It will be interesting to see how much better these games will look.

The other part of the graphics point is it is believed that the Wii graphics will begin to start looking dated. As 360 and PS3 games start looking so much better than the Wii it will be interesting to see if people choose to play the Wii version over the prettier PS3 or 360 version. So far 3rd party developers have not done well incorporating the Wii controls into games. It's interesting to see how Nintendo will counter this issue.

I tend to think the Wii has won this generation of hardware with the 360 coming in second and the PS3 coming in last. For me the issue really is about price and as long as the Wii is the only affordable console on the market they will continue to out pace the 360 and PS3. I suspect the PS3 will see an increase in sales but they will never get to where the PS2 was because their high price tag. How many people can afford a $600 console? How many can afford a $400 console? By the time Sony can drop the PS3 to $300 it will have such a small percentage of the market they will have very little 3rd party support. In the end I expect the Wii to sell 120 million consoles, the 360 to sell 40 million consoles and the PS3 to sell 20 million consoles.