Pros and Cons of a 3rd Generation Xbox coming in 2009
In the latest EGM they spread the rumor that Microsoft is working on a game for their 3rd generation xbox. Now I tend
to think that Microsoft will not release any information about a 3rd
generation console until Sony and Nintendo are about to do the same.
Microsoft has already hinted that they may look at a 6 year console
life cycle for the Xbox 360. Still the Xbox only got four years and if
the 360 got the same amount of time that would mean a new console in
2009.
The Pros:
1) Xbox 360 has been branded as a device that will break on you, next console must be bullet proof.
2) The lack of a hard drive in all units will hurt future games, next console must include HDD.
3) DVD's 9 GB of storage is too small for HD games, time to adopt HD-DVD or BluRay.
4) Add some sort of Wii like input device, make games simpler.
5) Out first will help improve initial sales.
The Cons:
1) Xbox 360 has to earn a profit first
2) Can't rush to market this time, hardware must be perfect
3) Still selling a lot of Xbox 360s
4) HD-DVD vs BluRay must be decided
5) Hardware must be priced better
Now it is certain that the initial design of the Xbox 360 is faulty. It seems that the frame the console was built on was causing the motherboard to warp and causing the GPU and CPU to pop out of the motherboard. This has been fixed in the new batch of Xbox 360s but still there is the stigma that the console is going to eventually break.
The Xbox 360 was rushed to market and the next console can not do the same. I'm sure Microsoft has a team right now designing the next Xbox but this time I think they will go a lot slower. Microsoft needs to have games that can run on the hardware and test the hardware before going to game makers and presenting their next console.
The lack of a hard drive has made it harder on cross platform games since on the Xbox 360 they can't install anything to a hard drive. Several games on the PS3 have taken advantage of this to decrease loading screens. Since Microsoft mandates any game on the 360 must work just as well on any of their models this means developers can't use that HDD like they could on the original Xbox or the PS3.
There are already 360 games coming out of Japan that require multiple game disks to play. For the most part these are video intensive games with long cut scenes. The 9 GB on a DVD works just fine for most games and I don't see this being a problem on the 360. So far no games on the PS3 actually require the massive storage space on the BluRay disk for actual game play. What it does is allow the publisher to have one disk that has all localization fit on one disk.
It is still unclear who will win the HD-DVD vs BluRay fight just yet. Looks like BluRay just made a deal of a lifetime but HD-DVD is not folding so you never know what will happen. Before Microsoft can put out their next console this fight has be decided. By 2009 I don't think we'll have a clear winner. Having the ability to play movies in a game console is huge and if the next Xbox console can't do that then there will be problems.
I really have no complaint with the Xbox 360 controller and think that for most people the controller isn't the problem, it's the games that require your to use all those buttons. One look at how Madden has made their game overly complex is a perfect example. Game play is so specialized the average casual gamer will never understand how it all works.
The biggest reason you won't see a new Xbox in 2009 will be Microsoft is still selling well in all regions. Xbox 360 is beating the PS3 in the US by a healthy margin and will sell around 1.3 million consoles in December alone. Europe has slowed down but they still are doing better than last generation. In Japan the 360 is selling 8 times as well as the original Xbox. The sales numbers are low in Japan but they are improving.
Microsoft needs to make a profit on the Xbox 360 hardware this time around. That means at least a five year life cycle. I expect the Xbox 360 will see a $100 price cut ($349,$249,$199) this Spring and then get a $50 price cut in Spring of '09 ($299,$199,$149) and get a $50 price cut in Spring of '10 ($249,$149,$99). Microsoft needs to be price conscious and realize the Xbox 360 needs to get to the Pro model to a mass market price.
If a new Xbox came out in '09 the 360's price would have to be cut dramatically as consumers would stop buying it and instead wait for the new model. I think it's more likely the Elite or Pro would get phases out as an improved model would take it's place. I actually think we will not see a 3rd generation Xbox 360 till early 2011 because the PS3 and Wii will most likely have a five year life cycles. Microsoft can do a Spring US release to get the momentum going and then launch in Europe and Japan later in the year.
The Pros:
1) Xbox 360 has been branded as a device that will break on you, next console must be bullet proof.
2) The lack of a hard drive in all units will hurt future games, next console must include HDD.
3) DVD's 9 GB of storage is too small for HD games, time to adopt HD-DVD or BluRay.
4) Add some sort of Wii like input device, make games simpler.
5) Out first will help improve initial sales.
The Cons:
1) Xbox 360 has to earn a profit first
2) Can't rush to market this time, hardware must be perfect
3) Still selling a lot of Xbox 360s
4) HD-DVD vs BluRay must be decided
5) Hardware must be priced better
Now it is certain that the initial design of the Xbox 360 is faulty. It seems that the frame the console was built on was causing the motherboard to warp and causing the GPU and CPU to pop out of the motherboard. This has been fixed in the new batch of Xbox 360s but still there is the stigma that the console is going to eventually break.
The Xbox 360 was rushed to market and the next console can not do the same. I'm sure Microsoft has a team right now designing the next Xbox but this time I think they will go a lot slower. Microsoft needs to have games that can run on the hardware and test the hardware before going to game makers and presenting their next console.
The lack of a hard drive has made it harder on cross platform games since on the Xbox 360 they can't install anything to a hard drive. Several games on the PS3 have taken advantage of this to decrease loading screens. Since Microsoft mandates any game on the 360 must work just as well on any of their models this means developers can't use that HDD like they could on the original Xbox or the PS3.
There are already 360 games coming out of Japan that require multiple game disks to play. For the most part these are video intensive games with long cut scenes. The 9 GB on a DVD works just fine for most games and I don't see this being a problem on the 360. So far no games on the PS3 actually require the massive storage space on the BluRay disk for actual game play. What it does is allow the publisher to have one disk that has all localization fit on one disk.
It is still unclear who will win the HD-DVD vs BluRay fight just yet. Looks like BluRay just made a deal of a lifetime but HD-DVD is not folding so you never know what will happen. Before Microsoft can put out their next console this fight has be decided. By 2009 I don't think we'll have a clear winner. Having the ability to play movies in a game console is huge and if the next Xbox console can't do that then there will be problems.
I really have no complaint with the Xbox 360 controller and think that for most people the controller isn't the problem, it's the games that require your to use all those buttons. One look at how Madden has made their game overly complex is a perfect example. Game play is so specialized the average casual gamer will never understand how it all works.
The biggest reason you won't see a new Xbox in 2009 will be Microsoft is still selling well in all regions. Xbox 360 is beating the PS3 in the US by a healthy margin and will sell around 1.3 million consoles in December alone. Europe has slowed down but they still are doing better than last generation. In Japan the 360 is selling 8 times as well as the original Xbox. The sales numbers are low in Japan but they are improving.
Microsoft needs to make a profit on the Xbox 360 hardware this time around. That means at least a five year life cycle. I expect the Xbox 360 will see a $100 price cut ($349,$249,$199) this Spring and then get a $50 price cut in Spring of '09 ($299,$199,$149) and get a $50 price cut in Spring of '10 ($249,$149,$99). Microsoft needs to be price conscious and realize the Xbox 360 needs to get to the Pro model to a mass market price.
If a new Xbox came out in '09 the 360's price would have to be cut dramatically as consumers would stop buying it and instead wait for the new model. I think it's more likely the Elite or Pro would get phases out as an improved model would take it's place. I actually think we will not see a 3rd generation Xbox 360 till early 2011 because the PS3 and Wii will most likely have a five year life cycles. Microsoft can do a Spring US release to get the momentum going and then launch in Europe and Japan later in the year.
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